Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (2024)

Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (1)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24

Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY 2023-24 as compared to the growth rate of 7.0% in FY 2022-23

Real GVA has grown by 7.2% in 2023-24 over the growth rate of 6.7% in 2022-23

Real GVA and Real GDP have been estimated to grow by 6.3% and 7.8% respectively in Q4 of FY 2023-24

Posted On: 31 MAY 2024 5:30PM by PIB Delhi

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note, the Provisional Estimates (PE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year (FY) 2023-24 and Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the Fourth quarter (January-March) of 2023-24 along with its expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. Annual and quarterly estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity along with year on year percent changes, expenditure components of GDP and annual estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income for the years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 at Constant and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 8 of Annexure A.

Key Highlights:

  • Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 8.2% in FY 2023-24 as compared to the growth rate of 7.0% in FY 2022-23. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24 over the growth rate of 14.2% in FY 2022-23.
  • Real GVA has grown by 7.2% in 2023-24 over 6.7% in 2022-23. This GVA growth has been mainly due to significant growth of 9.9% in Manufacturing sector in 2023-24 over -2.2% in 2022-23 and growth of 7.1% in 2023-24 over 1.9% in 2022-23 for Mining & Quarrying sector.
  • Real GVA and Real GDP have been estimated to grow by 6.3% and 7.8% respectively in Q4 of FY 2023-24. Growth rates in Nominal GVA and Nominal GDP for Q4 of FY 2023-24 have been estimated at 8.0% and 9.9% respectively.
  1. Annual Estimates and Growth Rates

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹173.82 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.71 lakh crore. The growth rate in Real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 8.2% as compared to 7.0% in 2022-23. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹295.36 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against ₹269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.6%.

Real GVA is estimated at ₹158.74 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against the FRE for the year 2022-23 of ₹148.05 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 7.2% as compared to 6.7% in 2022-23. Nominal GVA is estimated to attain a level of ₹267.62 lakh crore during FY 2023-24, against ₹246.59 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.5%.

Fig. 1: Annual GDP and GVA Estimates along with Growth Rates at Constant Prices

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (2)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (3)

Fig. 2: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA

Fig. 3: Composition and Growth Rates of Annual GVA in Broad Sectors

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (6)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (7)

[Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing and Mining & Quarrying

Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services and Construction

Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services]

  1. Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates

Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹47.24 lakh crore, against ₹43.84 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 7.8%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹78.28 lakh crore, against ₹71.23 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.9%.

Real GVA in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹42.23 lakh crore, against ₹39.74 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 6.3%. Nominal GVA in Q4 of 2023-24 is estimated at ₹70.97 lakh crore, against ₹65.74 lakh crore in Q4 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.0%.

Fig. 4: Quarterly GDP and GVA Estimates along with Y-o-Y Growth Rates from Q1 FY 2021-22 to Q4 FY 2023-24 at Constant Prices

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (8)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (9)

Fig. 5: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA

Sectoral Composition of Nominal GVA in Q4 of FY 2023-24

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (10)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (11)

Fig. 6: Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA in Broad Sectors

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (12)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (13)

  1. Methodology and Major Data Sources

Provisional and Quarterly Estimates of National Income are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year (2022-23) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for the year 2023-24 were released on 29th February, 2024. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest information on relevant indicators in the financial year.

The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators/data sources like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) Financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector based on available quarterly financial results of these companies for 2023-24, (iii) Advance Estimates of Crop Production for 2023-24, (iv) Production of Major Livestock Products for 2023-24, (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/ Consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major and Minor Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, etc., available for the financial year 2023-24. Year-on-Year growth rates (%) in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure B.

Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. Latest available information from Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy for Centre and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States up to March, 2024 along with the Centre/State-wise RE and BE Provision for 2023-24. Information on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. from Centre and States for 2023-24 are used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June of 2024-25 (Q1 2024-25) will be on 30.08.2024.

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Annexure A

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (14)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (15)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (16)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (17)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (18)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (19)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (20)

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (21)

Annexure B

Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (22)

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Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2023-24 And Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 of 2023-24 (2024)

FAQs

What is the GDP growth rate in q4 2023? ›

In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, housing investment, business investment, and state and local government that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment.

How do you calculate annual GDP from quarterly GDP? ›

Annual average growth rates can also be closely approximated as the average of the year-over-year growth rates for all four quarters (or 12 months) of the year. For example, annual GDP is the sum of four raw quarterly levels, and the annual CPI is the average of the twelve monthly levels.

What was the GDP estimate for q4? ›

In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent.

What is the current GDP of the US in 2024? ›

CharacteristicGDP in billion U.S. dollars
202731,755.69
202630,503.55
202529,256.38
202428,176.6
7 more rows
4 days ago

What is the GDP forecast for 2023 24? ›

Annual Estimates and Growth Rates

The growth rate in Real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 8.2% as compared to 7.0% in 2022-23. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹295.36 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against ₹269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.6%.

What is the US GDP growth estimate for 2023? ›

Current-dollar GDP increased 6.3 percent, or $1.61 trillion, in 2023 to a level of $27.36 trillion, compared with an increase of 9.1 percent, or $2.15 trillion, in 2022 (tables 1 and 3).

What is the difference between quarterly GDP and annual GDP? ›

In general terms, quarterly estimates of GDP are extrapolations of annual series of GDP. The estimates of GVA by industry are compiled by extrapolating value of output or value added with relevant indicators.

What is the quarterly rate of GDP? ›

US Real GDP QoQ is at 1.40%, compared to 3.40% last quarter and 2.20% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.18%. US Real GDP Growth is measured as the year over year change in the Gross Domestic Product in the US as adjusted for inflation.

Is GDP measured annually or quarterly? ›

Though GDP is typically calculated on an annual basis, it is sometimes calculated on a quarterly basis as well. In the U.S., for example, the government releases an annualized GDP estimate for each fiscal quarter and also for the calendar year.

What was Q4 GDP? ›

Real GDP growth was revised up 0.2ppt to 3.4% in Q4 2023. Economic momentum picked up considerably over the course of last year with GDP growth accelerating from 0.7% y/y in Q4 2022 to 3.1% y/y in Q4 2023.

How to calculate GDP? ›

Accordingly, GDP is defined by the following formula: GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports or more succinctly as GDP = C + I + G + NX where consumption (C) represents private-consumption expenditures by households and nonprofit organizations, investment (I) refers to business expenditures ...

What is the US GDP right now? ›

US GDP is at a current level of 28.27T, up from 27.96T last quarter and up from 26.81T one year ago. This is a change of 1.12% from last quarter and 5.43% from one year ago.

What is the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2024? ›

12 June 2024 - Gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024 according to provisional estimates, slightly up from 0.7% in the previous quarter (Figure 1).

What is the GDP of the United States each year? ›

U.S. gdp for 2021 was $23,315.08B, a 10.71% increase from 2020. U.S. gdp for 2020 was $21,060.47B, a 1.5% decline from 2019. U.S. gdp for 2019 was $21,380.98B, a 4.13% increase from 2018.

Who has the highest GDP in the world? ›

The economic strength of a country is determined by its gross domestic product (GDP). In other words, the amount of all income generated in the country from the sale of goods and services. With a GDP of 25.44 trillion dollars, the USA is by far the world's largest economy in this ranking for 2022.

What is the economic review for Q4 2023? ›

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

What is the current GDP growth rate? ›

US Real GDP QoQ (I:USRGDPG)

US Real GDP QoQ is at 1.40%, compared to 3.40% last quarter and 2.20% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.18%. US Real GDP Growth is measured as the year over year change in the Gross Domestic Product in the US as adjusted for inflation.

What is the nominal GDP growth rate in 2023? ›

Key information about US Nominal GDP Growth

United States Nominal GDP Growth was reported at 5.379 % in Mar 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.864 % for Dec 2023.

What is the current GDP of up 2023? ›

At current prices, the gross state domestic product (GSDP) of Uttar Pradesh is estimated to be ₹24.39 lakh crore (US$290 billion) in 2023–24. Merchandise exports from Uttar Pradesh reached US$21.03 billion in FY22. Uttar Pradesh, Largest State & Political Hub of India. ₹24.99 lakh crore (US$300 billion) (2024-25 est.)

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