Thesame European companies that champion sanctions against Russia are indirectlyfueling the Kremlin's war machine through middlemen in Kazakhstan, Turkey, andArmenia. In other words, the West’s sanctions are not just porous; they havebecome a hidden pipeline of critical supplies for Russia, empowering itsaggression in Ukraine while pretending to stand with Kyiv.
Whenit comes to Russia's war machine, it is almost as if the world has found a wayto keep it well-oiled—just without admitting it. Behind the scenes, a curiouscast of middlemen have stepped in, allowing Russia to thrive despite aminefield of Western sanctions. It is a classic case of “sanction-dodging byproxy,” where countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia, Turkey, and others becomeunintended accomplices in Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine. The West’swell-intentioned sanctions have become as porous as a sieve, withintermediaries enabling the Kremlin to carry on business as usual.
Russiais a country seemingly unfazed by international economic measures aimed atstifling its capacity to wage war. Despite over two years of sanctionsfollowing its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s economy continues to grow at arapid pace, registering a 4% annualized growth in the second quarter of thisyear. At first glance, this is perplexing. After all, Russia has been cut offfrom the world’s major tech suppliers, including the European Union. Yetsomehow, the country’s access to critical materials, from semiconductors tomachinery, hasn’t dried up. How?
Forstarters, look no further than Kazakhstan, a former Soviet state whose techexports to Russia have skyrocketed from $40 million in 2021 to $298 million in2023. This tiny country, with an industry previously incapable of producingsuch large quantities of high-tech products, now seems to be Russia’s savinggrace. But as you dig deeper, it becomes apparent that this “miracle” isnothing more than a smokescreen. European imports to Kazakhstan surged from€250 million to €709 million in the same period. What’s really happening?European goods are merely taking a detour through Kazakhstan to reach Russia.While it may appear to be legal on paper, in reality, it’s nothing short ofsanctions evasion.
Kazakhstanisn’t the only country serving as a lifeline for Russia. Armenia, Azerbaijan,Georgia, and Turkey have all seen significant growth in their trade with Russiasince the war began. In fact, exports from the EU to these countries increasedby €46 billion in 2023 alone, essentially offsetting the 50% drop in exports toRussia directly. For Russia, this surge in trade allows them to replenish theirmilitary and civilian supplies, all while staying under the radar.
Itis not just about banned goods like drones and semiconductors, which areflowing into Russia in increasing quantities. The list also includes seeminglyinnocuous items like ball-bearings, chemicals, and even household appliances.Europe’s latest sanctions, introduced in June, have tried to clamp down onthese products, but they are still finding their way onto the battlefield. Overhalf of the equipment used by Russia between February and August 2022 containedcomponents sourced from Europe or America, according to the Royal UnitedServices Institute. The sanctions regime, it seems, is more of an obstaclecourse than an impenetrable barrier.
Themiddlemen know exactly what they’re doing. Shipments bound for Russia oftenpass through several hands, sometimes traveling through Uzbekistan or Armeniabefore reaching their final destination. American authorities recentlydiscovered a network of European firms, organized by the Russian conglomerateMayak, that smuggled sanctioned equipment into Russia through third countries.Even more shocking is the fact that many of these middlemen operate with fullknowledge of their actions. Mayak is just one example; other networks have beenuncovered, with equipment making its way through Turkey for Russia’sstate-owned Ostec and through Kyrgyzstan for aerospace firm Newton-ITM.
Europe’spolicymakers are not entirely blind to this elaborate game of hide-and-seek.There have been efforts to tighten sanctions and pressure neighboring countriesinto compliance. But it’s a delicate dance, as these countries value their tiesto Russia and often profit from the trade. When Armenia began cracking down onfirms trading with Russia, it was only after receiving €270 million in aid fromthe EU. It’s a carrot-and-stick approach, but it hardly addresses theunderlying problem.
Meanwhile,Turkey has become one of the biggest players in the game, filling the gap leftby European companies that were once top suppliers of household appliances toRussia. In addition to domestic goods, Turkish firms are now producing dronesand microelectronics for Russia’s war machine. It doesn’t stop there.Kazakhstan’s imports of office machinery from Europe tripled between 2021 and2023, a fact that has little to do with the rise of new offices and factoriesin the region, and everything to do with rerouting goods to Russia.
ForEurope and the United States, the consequences are clear: without the help ofthese middlemen, Russia’s economy—and its ability to continue waging war—wouldbe severely hampered. As the saying goes, "when one door closes, anotherone opens." In this case, the West has slammed the front door shut onRussia, only to see side doors swing wide open through countries likeKazakhstan, Turkey, and Armenia.
Whatmakes this all the more outrageous is the brazenness of the entire operation.These middlemen, knowing full well the implications of their actions, continueto assist Russia’s war efforts under the guise of legitimate trade. And whileEuropean and American policymakers scramble to plug the leaks, new onescontinue to spring up, often with the full cooperation of local governments.For instance, Turkey’s foreign ministry has all but admitted that metalssmelted in Europe are finding their way into Russian munitions, despite the warraging on in Ukraine.
Ifthis weren't so serious, it would be almost comedic. But the joke is on Ukraineand the West. While European leaders speak of solidarity and support forUkraine, their own companies, aided by middlemen in Central Asia and theCaucasus, are keeping the Russian war machine running smoothly. So long as theglobal market continues to operate in this gray zone, sanctions will be littlemore than symbolic gestures.
Andin the end, isn't that the greatest irony? Europe and the United States set outto weaken Russia, only to see their own products fueling the very war they seekto end. The middlemen may be nameless and faceless, but their impact isundeniable. It's almost like watching a magician pull a rabbit out of ahat—except this time, the trick is costing lives. Perhaps the West should takenote: when it comes to sanctions, it's not enough to build the walls. You haveto close the doors too.
Becausein this game, the middlemen are laughing all the way to the bank.
